Predicting Potential Food Web Impacts of a Black Carp Invasion in the Great Lakes

Session: 02b. - Status and Management of Invasive Carps in the Great Lakes

Monir Hossain, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, [email protected]
Marten Koops, Fisheries & Oceans Canada, [email protected]

Abstract

There is concern that Black Carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus) could pose a serious threat to Great Lakes ecosystems if they become established. We develop ecosystem models for a Great Lakes food web before and after Black Carp invasion and characterized how species/group-specific biological rates may change after Black Carp invasion. We used biotic and abiotic information from a published Ecopath model for Lake Erie and developed five alternative invasion scenarios for the lake and their associated energy dynamics to describe trophodynamic indicators of direct and indirect impacts from a Black Carp invasion. We achieved a set of solutions for each scenario through linear inverse modelling (LIM) and identified clusters representing alternative potential states of the Lake Erie ecosystem. The set of all possible models were then analyzed to categorize alternative invasion scenarios and the conditions that may predict these outcomes.

1. Keyword
carp

2. Keyword
invasive species

3. Keyword
Lake Erie