Using a hydrodynamic model to predict Asian carp spawning success

Session: 02b. - Status and Management of Invasive Carps in the Great Lakes

Tej Heer, University of Toronto, [email protected]
Nicholas Mandrak, Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, [email protected]
Mathew Wells, University of Toronto Scarborough, [email protected]

Abstract

Due to the risk of an Asian carp invasion in the Great Lakes, there is a focus on identifying possible spawning tributaries to the Canadian Great Lakes and methods to prevent successful spawning. Modelling Asian carp egg movement in water is a potentially useful method, as spawning success is determined by egg suspension in the water column at the time of hatching. A case study will be presented on the development of a river model on the Don River, a tributary to Lake Ontario. Existing methods of predicting egg movements in a velocity field, using a Lagrangian Particle Tracker and a temperature-dependent hatching model, are integrated into a commercial three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (EFDC Explorer). Data collection included velocity and bathymetric profiles at cross sections throughout the river and interpolating between the cross sections to create a bathymetric mesh. The model was calibrated and validated using collected and existing velocity data, then run at different flow scenarios to examine spawning success under current and future conditions. The results can be used for Asian carp management by identifying locations for early detection and spawning prevention actions. 

1. Keyword
invasive species

2. Keyword
hydrodynamic model

3. Keyword
Great Lakes basin

4. Additional Keyword
Asian Carp