Development of a Hypoxia Forecast Model for Lake Erie: Retrospective Analysis of the First Season

Session: 45. - Hypoxia: Causes, Impacts, and Management

Mark Rowe, Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, mdrowe@umich.edu
Eric Anderson, NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), eric.j.anderson@noaa.gov
Gregory Lang, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Gregory.Lang@noaa.gov
Steve Ruberg, NOAA - GLERL, steve.ruberg@noaa.gov
Scott Moegling, Cleveland Water Department, Scott_Moegling@clevelandwater.com
Ed Verhamme, LimnoTech, everhamme@limno.com
Dmitry Beletsky, CIGLR, SEAS, University of Michigan, beletsky@umich.edu
Hongyan Zhang, CIGLR, University of Michigan, zhanghy@umich.edu
Thomas Johengen, CILER, University of Michigan, johengen@umich.edu
Craig Stow, NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, craig.stow@noaa.gov

Abstract

For the first time, in 2017, we ran a hypoxia forecast model that generated a daily nowcast and forecast of three-dimensional fields of dissolved oxygen (DO) in Lake Erie. We are in the second year of a five-year project with the goal of developing a hypoxia forecast model that can serve public water systems in Lake Erie, and may be suitable for operational use at NOAA. The DO model was developed using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model’s General Ecological Module, and the hydrodynamic component was similar to NOAA’s Lake Erie Operational Forecast System. Three noteworthy upwelling events occurred in July and August, bringing hypoxic water to coastal water intake locations, as observed through DO sensors (GLOS and LimnoTech), and sensor moorings deployed as part of our project. Cool, breezy weather at the end of August caused the hypoxic zone to retreat to deeper water, but warm, calm weather caused shoreward expansion of the hypoxic zone in September. These events were portrayed by the model. However, the model displayed limited skill in some characteristics, for example shallow-biased mixed layer depth. An assessment of model skill, suitability for the application, and future directions will be presented.

1. Keyword
hydrodynamic model

2. Keyword
oxygen

3. Keyword
Lake Erie