Great Lakes' water levels may be predictable
Ann Arbor, MI — High water levels in the Great Lakes produce coastal flooding and wave erosion, while low levels negatively affect shipping and reduce the appeal of lakefront properties. Anticipating water level extremes sufficiently in advance would improve the ability to manage rather than simply react to these problems.
Using state-of-the-art statistical methods, two potentially predictable cycles in the water levels of Lakes Michigan and Huron have been identified. These cycles are characterized by extreme lake-level episodes repeating every 8 to 12 years. These extremes are caused by changes in rainfall over the Great Lakes region which are seemingly connected to previously known climate patterns over the North Atlantic ocean.
"When the links between these long term climate patterns and day-to-day weather events are better understood, it may be possible to predict several years in advance whether water levels will approach extremes, and implement proactive rather than reactive solutions to the problems those levels cause,\ concludes Paul Roebber, an atmospheric scientist with the University of Wisconsin in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Original Publication Information
Results of this study, "Quasi-periodic decadal cycles in levels of lakes Michigan and Huron ," are reported by Janel L. Hanrahan, Sergey V. Kravtsov and Paul J. Roebber in the latest issue (Volume 35, No. 1, pp. 30-35) of the Journal of Great Lakes Research, published by Elsevier, 2009.
Contacts
For more information about the study, contact Janel Hanrahan, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, WI 53201, ackerjl@uwm.edu.
For information about the Journal of Great Lakes Research, contact Marlene Evans, Editor, National Water Research Institute, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 3H5, Canada; editor@iaglr.org; (608) 692-1076.
Since 1967, IAGLR has served as the focal point for compiling and disseminating multidisciplinary knowledge on North America's Laurentian Great Lakes and other large lakes of the world and their watersheds. In part, IAGLR communicates this knowledge through publication of the Journal of Great Lakes Research, available to members in print and electronic form. A searchable archive of the journal is available online and includes the abstracts of articles from the journal's inception in 1975 through the most recent issue. In addition, complete articles are available to members who have signed up for an electronic subscription.