FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

January 3, 2008

Contacts

Models Predict Future of Lake Ontario Wetlands

Ann Arbor, MI — Natural variability in lake levels provides occasional high waters in wetlands that kill tall, light-blocking cattails and invading upland plants. Low lake levels expose soils to the air and allow seeds from other plants to germinate and grow, thus restoring habitat diversity. This natural cycling has persisted for thousands of years.

Lake Ontario water levels have been regulated since the St. Lawrence Seaway opened. The loss of natural variability allowed cattails to dominate much of the wetland area along the lakeshore and reduce fish and wildlife habitat. The International Joint Commission is using results from a large U.S.-Canadian study to evaluate new regulation plans for the lake that might reduce environmental damages.

As part of that study, models were developed for different wetland types in Lake Ontario using information on surface elevations, lake levels, and water-depth preferences of plants. The models predict the response of the wetlands to any new regulation plans proposed.

"The ability to predict how wetlands will change under a new plan greatly improves the chances of making the best selection," says Dr. Douglas Wilcox of the U.S. Geological Survey-Great Lakes Science Center. "The wetland models also allow better prediction of how fish and wildlife will respond to the selected plan and reduce the risk of long-term environmental impacts."

Original Publication Information

Results of this study, "Predicting Wetland Plant Community Responses to Proposed Water-level-regulation Plans for Lake Ontario: GIS-based Modeling," are reported by Douglas A. Wilcox and Yichun Xie in the latest issue (Volume 33, No. 4, pp. 751-773) of the Journal of Great Lakes Research, published by the International Association for Great Lakes Research, 2007.

Contacts

For more information about the study, contact Douglas Wilcox, USGS-Great Lakes Science Center, 1451 Green Rd., Ann Arbor, MI 48105, dwilcox@usgs.gov, (734) 214-7256.

For information about the Journal of Great Lakes Research, contact Marlene Evans, Editor, National Water Research Institute, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 3H5, Canada; editor@iaglr.org; (608) 692-1076.

Links

Since 1967, IAGLR has served as the focal point for compiling and disseminating multidisciplinary knowledge on North America's Laurentian Great Lakes and other large lakes of the world and their watersheds. In part, IAGLR communicates this knowledge through publication of the Journal of Great Lakes Research, available to members in print and electronic form. A searchable archive of the journal is available online and includes the abstracts of articles from the journal's inception in 1975 through the most recent issue. In addition, complete articles are available to members who have signed up for an electronic subscription.