Preliminary model analysis for nearshore nutrient dynamics in Lake Ontario
Session: Improving Model Predictions Through Coupled System and Data Assimilation (1)
Yuan Hui, University at Buffalo, SUNY, [email protected]
ZHENDUO ZHU, University at Buffalo, SUNY, [email protected]
Derek Schlea, LimnoTech, [email protected]
Todd Redder, LimnoTech, [email protected]
Joseph Atkinson, University of Buffalo, Dept. of Civil , Struct. & Env Eng., [email protected]
Abstract
A linked hydrodynamic and ecological modeling framework is presented as a tool to analyze nutrient dynamics and its effects on cladophora resurgence in the nearshore of Lake Ontario. The framework is based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) and the Advanced Aquatic Ecosystem Model (A2EM). This approach is designed to better understand the fate and transport of nutrients along the shoreline, especially considering that the total tributary nutrient loadings have remained consistently low over the past decade. The resolution of the model grid is approximately 200 m nearshore and 2 km off-shore. The simulation period is from April 1st to September 30th 2013. The hydrodynamic model simulates the thermocline well after calibrating convection and evaporation coefficients and the model is able to replicate the surface circulations. After coupling with ecological modeling, which includes components of phosphorus, nitrogen, carbon and silica cycling, planktons, mussels and benthic algae, the preliminary calibrations of this framework on water quality are reported. This framework will be validated using water quality measurements from Cooperative Science Monitoring Initiative (CSMI) 2018 and the effect of nearshore nutrient transport on cladophora growth and resurgence will be analyzed to help determine the watershed nutrient loading targets for Lake Ontario.