Modeling Lake Circulation Using Future Climate Scenarios: A Progress Report

Session: Large Lakes’ Response to Climate: Past, Present, and Future (1)

Brent Lofgren, NOAA/GLERL, [email protected]
Jia Wang, NOAA, GLERL, [email protected]
Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, University of Michigan, [email protected]
James Kessler, University of Michigan, [email protected]

Abstract

Lakes are a part of the interactive surface-atmosphere system in which climate manifests. However, their dynamics have been drastically simplified in all previous simulations under climate change scenarios, whether in global or regional models of climate. With an eye toward eventual 2-way coupling of these systems, we are developing the means to drive 3-dimensional Finite Volume Community Model (FVCOM)-based Great Lakes dynamical models with output from a global general circulation model (GCM). In cooperation with NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), we use output from their newest generation GCM (not yet released to outside users) to test this configuration. Various means of de-biasing and downscaling will be tested for the data input to FVCOM. The primary focus at this point is validating simulations for historical times against historical data, while future scenarios will be developed later.

Twitter handle of presenter
@Brent_Lofgren