Model Development for Lake Ontario CSMI

Session: State of Lake Ontario: 2003-2018 CSMI Overview (2)

Joseph Atkinson, University of Buffalo, Dept. of Civil , Struct. & Env Eng., [email protected]
Yuan Hui, University at Buffalo, SUNY, [email protected]
ZHENDUO ZHU, University at Buffalo, SUNY, [email protected]
Todd Redder, LimnoTech, [email protected]
Derek Schlea, LimnoTech, [email protected]

Abstract

Data collected in different CSMI years provide a picture of the state of the lake in terms of various water quality and ecological parameters. 2018 was the third such field campaign in Lake Ontario, with previous programs in 2008 and 2013. These data provide key input for development of simulation models, and models in turn provide a means of integrating data into a more complete evaluation of system behavior and also a framework for management decision support. In this presentation a modeling framework is described to complement CSMI data collection. This framework consists of a hydrodynamic model linked to a water quality and ecological model. The hydrodynamic model calculates advection and diffusion terms used for the water quality mass balance equations. The ecological model incorporates a submodel for cladophora, which is one of the main desired endpoints for this modeling exercise. Currently the model is undergoing preliminary calibration based on historical data, mostly 2013 CSMI data. Once available, 2018 data will be evaluated to determine if adjustments in the calibration are needed. Once the final calibration is obtained, the model will be used to examine different management scenarios, which will likely involve nutrient loading controls.