Climate projections over the Great Lakes region using the GLARM

Session: Large Lakes’ Response to Climate: Past, Present, and Future (1)

Pengfei Xue, Michigan Tech, [email protected]
Xinyu Ye, Michigan Tech University, [email protected]
Huang Chenfu, Michigan Technological University, [email protected]

Abstract

General Circulation Models (GCMs) output are commonly used to analyze future climate change. However, the regional impacts of climate change are critically dependent on localized features that may not be represented adequately on the coarse resolution of GCM grids. Thus, a downscaled two-way coupled model, Great Lakes–Atmosphere Regional Model (GLARM), is used to project the climate change over the Great Lakes region. The projections suggest that the stress in air temperature and precipitation during the period (2080-2100) under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) will be exacerbated with larger spatial variability compared with the medium emission scenario (RCP4.5).  Air temperature is projected to increase in all seasons. Change in precipitation show large spatial variability, and spatial patterns are different from the GCMs ensemble projection. The spatial heterogeneity in the change in lake surface temperature (LST) occurs over the Great Lakes in future projection, with the more substantial changes in the deep-water depth regions. LST shows the largest changes in the Lake Erie among the five lakes. A decrease in lake ice coverage is projected in all the five lakes, and significant decrease occurs along the coast. The impacts of climate change on the ecosystem are also discussed.