Using a 3-D hydrodynamic model to predict the spawning success of Asian carp

Session: Invasive species (2)

Tej Heer, University of Toronto, [email protected]
Mathew Wells, University of Toronto Scarborough, [email protected]
Nicholas Mandrak, Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, [email protected]

Abstract

Due to the potential for an Asian carp invasion of the Great Lakes, there is a focus on identifying spawning tributaries to the Great Lakes. Modelling Asian carp egg movement is a potentially useful method, as spawning success is determined by egg suspension in the water column at the time of hatching. Current modelling approaches primarily use one-dimensional hydrodynamic models, which may simplify the velocity profiles laterally and vertically in a tributary. To investigate the impact of model dimension on model results, a novel coupling of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (EFDC Explorer), a Lagrangian particle tracker, and a temperature-dependent egg development model was developed on a potential spawning tributary. The model examined changes in Asian carp egg hatching rates in different flow conditions and showed that simulating a velocity field in three dimensions can a have significant impact on predicted hatching rates. The outputs of the model can inform management decisions on spawning prevention, along with early detection and rapid response programs, by pinpointing when Asian carp spawning potential is highest.