Study of climate change impacts on Great Lakes wetlands using the Canadian Regional Climate Model
Session: Large Lakes’ Response to Climate: Past, Present, and Future (2)
Armin Dehghan, Environment and Climate Change Canada, [email protected]
Frank Seglenieks, Environment Canada, [email protected]
Biljana Music, Ouranos; Université Laval, [email protected]
Wendy Leger, Environment and Climate Change Canada, [email protected]
Greg Mayne, [email protected]
Abstract
Environment and Climate Change Canada is assessing the vulnerability of coastal wetlands located along the Canadian shores of the Great Lakes as part of the Government of Canada’s Great Lakes Protective Initiative. This requires a determination of how climate change will affect wetland structure and function and subsequently adaptive measures to enhance resilience.
The overall impact of climate change on wetlands depends on the rate and magnitude of changes in critical climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, ice cover, water levels and winds. To better quantify the possible impacts of climate changes on the Great Lakes wetlands, a high-resolution regional climate model is needed to generate future climate projections with a higher degree of confidence.
This work uses the Canadian Regional Climate Model Version 5 (CRCM5; spatial resolution of 25 km) to project air/water temperature, precipitation and ice cover in the Great Lakes region under emission scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for mid and late 21st century. The analyses of these projections will be presented in this work. Additionally, we will present the Great Lakes water levels projections using CRCM5-simulated climate variables as inputs (precipitation, runoff and evaporation) to the Coordinated Great Lakes Routing and Regulation Model.