Retrospective Analysis of the 2015-2016 El Niño and its Impacts on Great Lakes Water Levels

Session: Large Lakes’ Response to Climate: Past, Present, and Future (3)

Deanna Apps, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, [email protected]
Lauren Fry, US Army Corps of Engineers - Detroit District, [email protected]

Abstract

A coordinated 6-month water level forecast for each of the Great Lakes is produced monthly by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and Environment and Climate Change Canada. Forecasters in the USACE office examine basin conditions, weather forecasts, and seasonal climate forecasts prior to each forecast done at the beginning of the month. Seasonal forecasts and evolving teleconnections, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are viewed as the best tools a forecaster has when trying to forecast the impact of climate related events on water levels. This research will focus on the recent 2015-2016 strong El Niño and the impacts it had on water levels, water supply, and water budget variables, such as precipitation and temperature, across the Great Lakes. The analysis will investigate how well the prediction of water levels was leading up to and during the El Niño, as well as the possible influences of other teleconnections, especially during the winter months. The goal of this research will be to determine how or if a forecaster can use the knowledge of teleconnections to improve forecasting of water levels.