Development of Climate Impact Indicators (CIIs) for the Maumee Watershed

Session: Harmful Algal Blooms and Their Toxicity: Remote Sensing and Modeling Approaches (1)

Judy Smith, National Center for Water Quality Research, [email protected]
Remegio Confesor, Heidelberg College, NCWQR, [email protected]

Abstract

To reduce the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) targeted a 40% nutrient load reduction. Previous studies have demonstrated that most of the nutrient input to the WLEB were from agricultural runoff in the Maumee watershed. To determine the viability of the GLWQA’s goal, the combined effect of increasing precipitation, temperature, and agricultural best management practices (BMPs) to hydrology, nutrients, and sediment exports should be explored. The purpose of this research was to produce CIIs for the Maumee watershed. Nineteen global circulation models (GCMs), available from the Climate Data Store (CDS), were used.  Processing instructions were downloaded from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Historical PRISM data (daily precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) were used to downscale and bias correct the GCM data with the distribution-based scaling protocol (DBS), developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). The researchers utilized natural cubic splines to obtain a dynamic equation that captured extreme weather events without overestimating future events. The result was a robust historical and future climate dataset for the Maumee watershed and a process that can be extended across the whole Great Lakes region.