A comparison of the Red Assiniboine Basin SPARROW with a Bayesian approach

Session: 35. - Watershed Modeling across all Scales from Small to Large

Agnes Richards, Environment Canada, [email protected]
Alex Neumann, University of Toronto Scarborough, [email protected]
Glenn Benoy, International Joint Commission, [email protected]
Dale Robertson, U.S. Geological Survey, [email protected]
Felix Ouellet, ECCC-ECCC Environment and Climate Change Canada, [email protected]
David Saad, U.S. Geological Survey, [email protected]
George Arhonditsis, University of Toronto Scarborough, [email protected]

Abstract

The Red Assiniboine River Basin (RARB) SPARROW model is the first completed application which spans the Canada US border and includes two provinces and three states. The RARB has a total drainage area of 220,000 km² of which 47% is in Canada. The land use is primarily agricultural (77%), followed by forest (9%), wetland (7%), while urban and open water are about 3%. This core SPARROW modelling work is based on a U.S. Geological Survey approach which involves a deterministic calibration procedure. The significant sources of total phosphorus (TP) include agricultural inputs, forests and wetlands, and stream channels. Overall, the Canadian TP loads were 1.5 lower than the loads out of the US, while TP hot spots were identified by examining loads on a catchment by catchment basis. A stochastic (i.e., Bayesian) framework will be applied to the RARB to account for both measurement and model errors. The Bayesian approach will be compared with the core SPARROW modelling efforts.

1. Keyword
model studies

2. Keyword
model testing

3. Keyword
nutrients