Predicting Harmful Algal Blooms: What have we learned from the modelling efforts in Lake Erie?

Session: Poster session

Yuko Shimoda, University of Toronto Scarborough, [email protected]
George Arhonditsis, University of Toronto Scarborough, [email protected]
Ram Yerubandi, Environment Canada, Water Sciences & Technology, Canada Centre for Inland Waters, [email protected]
Weitao Zhang, University of Toronto Scarborough, [email protected]

Abstract

In the context of aquatic biogeochemical modelling, there is an increasing pressure to explicitly treat multiple biogeochemical cycles and to increase the functional diversity of biotic communities. In this study, we first evaluate the capacity of 124 aquatic biogeochemical models to reproduce the dynamics of phytoplankton functional groups with special emphasis on Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). We present the significant variability with respect to the mathematical representation of key physiological processes (e.g., growth strategies, nutrient kinetics, settling velocities) as well as group-specific characterizations typically considered in the pertinent literature. We then critically discuss the current efforts to parameterize the ecology, physiology of cyanobacteria, and the mechanisms triggering HABs in Lake Erie. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to present a comprehensive assessment of HAB modelling in the Great Lakes and examine the potential of improving the representation of phytoplankton adaptive strategies for resource procurement. It is our hope that this study will contribute towards an effective linkage of the variability at the organismal level with ecosystem-scale patterns.

1. Keyword
harmful algal blooms

2. Keyword
cyanophyta

3. Keyword
ecosystem modeling