Climate Change and Ecological Risk Assessment For Predicting Future Great Lakes Crayfish Invasions

Session: 03. - Science and Policy for Management of Invasive Crayfish

Reuben Keller, Loyola University Chicago, [email protected]
Victoria Prescott, Loyola University Chicago, [email protected]

Abstract

Invasive crayfish are some of the most damaging aquatic invasive species across the Great Lakes Basin. In the future it is likely that species will continue to spread through connected waterways and as a result of human actions. It is also likely that new species will be introduced, and that climate change will affect the regions where different species are able to establish. This creates a dynamic situation in which it is likely that new management and policy approaches will be needed. Here, we have combined existing ecological risk assessments with climate change scenarios to predict the potential for range expansion and contraction under climate change, and to determine where species that are likely to be introduced could become established. In total, climate change is likely to expand the range of several existing invaders, including the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) and will also make the Great Lakes more suitable for the establishment of some high risk species that are currently unlikely to including the Australian yabby (Cherax destructor). Our results support management that is targeted at the regions most likely to become invaded, and the species most likely to invade.

1. Keyword
invasive species

2. Keyword
risk assessment

3. Keyword
crustaceans

4. Additional Keyword
Rusty crayfish

5. Additional Keyword
Red swamp crayfish