Using a Property-carrying Particle Model for Ecosystem Simulation: A Case Study of Sandusky Bay

Session: 36. - Improving Model Predictions through Coupled System and Data Assimilation

Ryan Kibler, Michigan Technological Univ., [email protected]
Chenfu Huang, Michigan Technological University, [email protected]
Xing Zhou, Michigan Technological University, [email protected]
Pengfei Xue, Michigan Tech, [email protected]

Abstract

Situated on Lake Erie’s southwestern shore in Ohio, Sandusky Bay is bordered by Ottawa, Sandusky, and Erie counties. This area is a mainstay to the northern Ohio economy because of its tourism and fishing industry. Today, approximately 80% of the Sandusky River watershed is devoted to agricultural purposes, thus loading the river with high concentrations of phosphorus. With the high loads of phosphorus, algae can utilize the nutrient and grow very quickly producing algal blooms.  To date, hydrodynamic modeling of Sandusky Bay is relatively limited; we have developed a high-resolution FVCOM model for this region. In this work, we will utilize a new technique which considers hydrodynamic effects and biological processes by integrating a property-carrying particle model (PCPM) and an Eulerian concentration biological model for ecosystem modeling. Results show the integration of Lagrangian and Eulerian approaches allows for a very natural coupling of mass transport (represented by particle movements and random walk) and biological processes in water columns, which is described by a common vertical 1-D biological model. This method is considered to be far more efficient than traditional tracer based Eulerian bio-physical models for 3-D simulation, particularly for a large size of ensemble simulation.

1. Keyword
ecosystem modeling

2. Keyword
Lake Erie