Modeling cyanobacterial blooms in Presque Isle Bay, Erie, PA, using the EPA model AQUATOX

Session: 37. - Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) and their Toxicity: Remote Sensing and Modeling Approaches

H. Rick Diz, retired-Gannon University, [email protected]
J. Campbell, Mercyhurst University, [email protected]

Abstract

The frequency and intensity of harmful algal blooms in Presque Isle Bay (the Bay) have increased and the eutrophication status of the Bay has worsened over the past decade.  The Bay lies along the southern shore of Lake Erie, constituting the harbor at Erie, PA.  The USEPA’s aquatic ecosystem model AQUATOX was employed to better understand factors leading to blooms of cyanobacteria, the so-called ‘harmful algae’. Nutrient loadings from the watershed were estimated based on field monitoring of nutrient concentrations and volumetric discharge during storm events and baseflow.  Actual wind, solar intensity, and water temperature were inputs to the model.  Plankton and water samples were collected in the Bay every two weeks during the summers of 2016 and 2017 for model calibration. An in situ water quality buoy provided near-continuous chlorophyll measurements during the summer seasons.  The presentation will include the results of a sensitivity analysis performed to identify those environmental factors having the greatest impact on cyanobacterial abundance. 

1. Keyword
cyanophyta

2. Keyword
Lake Erie

3. Keyword
nutrients

4. Additional Keyword
Harmful algal blooms

5. Additional Keyword
Presque Isle Bay