Investigating the Effects of Climate Change in Lake Michigan Using the Atlantis Ecosystem Model
Session: 31. - Evaluation of the Current State of Ecological Modeling and Future Perspectives
Nicholas Boucher, CIGLR/University of Michigan, [email protected]
Hongyan Zhang, CIGLR, University of Michigan, [email protected]
Ed Rutherford, NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, [email protected]
Doran Mason, NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab, [email protected]
David Bunnell, USGS Great Lakes Science Center, [email protected]
Haoguo Hu, CIGLR, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, [email protected]
Abstract
Climate change is a major stressor on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that is predicted to affect the Great Lakes through shifts in precipitation, wind strength and seasonality, and increased water temperature. These effects may decrease ice cover, increase thermal habitat for fish, deepen the thermocline, extend the stratification period, and advance phenology of the spring phytoplankton bloom. We hypothesized that climate change will also affect the ecosystem dynamics of Lake Michigan by causing a shift from top-down to bottom-up control of the lake’s food web. Additionally, effects of increasing nutrient loads due to growing populations within the watershed may have a synergistic effect with warming on food webs. We used The Atlantis Ecosystem Model to simulate effects of climate change on Lake Michigan’s food web dynamics. We specifically simulated scenarios of warmer water temperatures, a longer stratified season, and a deeper thermocline in the future. We also simulated interactive effects of climate warming with changes in nutrient loading and piscivore stocking strategy. Our presentation will discuss the results of our scenarios and provide some insights into the potential for policy actions and management strategies to mitigate climate change effects on Lake Michigan.
1. Keyword
climate change
2. Keyword
ecosystem modeling
3. Keyword
food chains
4. Additional Keyword
Ecosystem Dynamics