Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Great Lakes Water Supply using Regional Climate Models

Session: Poster session

Edouard Mailhot, Université Laval, [email protected]
Daniel Nadeau, Université Laval, [email protected]
Biljana Music, Ouranos; Université Laval, [email protected]
Anne Frigon, Ouranos, [email protected]

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes region have been investigated for a few decades now. Studies have explored different aspects that could potentially be altered by a changing climate in this populous area. The Great Lakes region is relatively small at the planetary scale, and usually the water surfaces are not explicitely resolved in Earth System Models (ESMs). The use of Regional Climate Models (RCM) is thus needed to achieve more credible future climate projections over the region and to better understand their impacts on the Great Lakes water supply.

This research uses close to 25 regional climate simulations from a few RCMs driven by different ESMs to project in time and analyze the variables that affect the Net Basin Supply (NBS). NBS is the main driver of the Great Lakes water level changes as it incorporates precipitation, lake evaporation and runoff. After assessing the RCMs’ ability in simulating the NBS variables, the climate change runs will be analyzed to evaluate their potential changes under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 future emissions scenarios.

Investigating how NBS will evolve by 2050 and 2100 will be useful for water managers as well as politicians and lakeside residents.

1. Keyword
climate change

2. Keyword
hydrologic budget

3. Keyword
Great Lakes basin