The effects of climate change on lake ice breakup across the Northern Hemisphere

Session: 52. - Climate Interactions with Large Lakes? Physical Systems

Lianna Lopez, York University, [email protected]
Bailey Hewitt, York University, [email protected]
John Magnuson, Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, [email protected]
Sapna Sharma, York University, [email protected]

Abstract

Seasonal ice cover shapes the structure and function of many lakes across the Northern Hemisphere. Due to the sensitivity of lake ice breakup to changes in climate, ice records can serve as an indicator of climate dynamics over time. During our study period (1950/51 to 2013/14) the timing of ice breakup has changed from 5.0 days per decade earlier to 0.3 days per decade later in 153 lakes across the Northern Hemisphere. These historical changes in ice breakup are attributed to several climate drivers including spring and winter air temperatures as well as prominent large-scale climate oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Specifically, we found that an increase of 1°C in spring monthly air temperatures advanced the timing of lake ice breakup earlier in the year by 0.66 to 4.5 days. Furthermore, we expect certain regions to exhibit noticeably stronger trends or hotspots in ice phenology and air temperatures. Under climate change scenarios we predict that the lake ice-free period will start even earlier in the year by 2050 and 2070 especially in vulnerable “hotspot” regions. This change could severely alter lake ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere in the future. 

1. Keyword
ice

2. Keyword
climate change

3. Keyword
climatic data

4. Additional Keyword
ice break-up

5. Additional Keyword
Northern Hemisphere