Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive red swamp crayfish in the Great Lakes

Session: 03. - Science and Policy for Management of Invasive Crayfish

Eric Larson, University of Illinois, [email protected]
Gust Annis, The Nature Conservancy, [email protected]
Lindsay Chadderton, The Nature Conservancy, [email protected]
Jody Peters, University of Notre Dame, [email protected]
Rachel Egly, University of Illinois, [email protected]

Abstract

We report here results from predictive models to anticipate the potential distribution of the invasive red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii in the Great Lakes. We combined a database of crayfish species occurrences with GIS data layers to model habitats vulnerable to invasion by P. clarkii using both a machine-learning algorithm and physiological information for this species. We developed a boosted regression tree model of all suitable crayfish habitat across the Great Lakes, then constrained this habitat to areas anticipated to be suitable for P. clarkii based on its known physiology: Procambarus clarkii requires a minimum temperature of 15 C for both copulation and oviposition, with peak reproduction occurring at temperatures of 20-23 C. We identified shallow, nearshore waters of all Great Lakes except Superior as suitable for P. clarkii. We predict where P. clarkii is likely to establish in this important freshwater ecosystem, which can be used to identify and prioritize areas where education and outreach should seek to prevent new introductions of this crayfish, and where surveillance and monitoring should seek to identify newly established populations.

1. Keyword
crustaceans

2. Keyword
invasive species

3. Keyword
GIS

4. Additional Keyword
crayfish