Impact of climate change on hydrologic budgets and streamflows in northern Lake Erie Basin in Ontari

Session: 35. - Watershed Modeling across all Scales from Small to Large

Prasad Daggupati Daggupati, University of Guelph, [email protected]

Abstract

Climate Change impacts are being observed in Great Lake region, which have a significant effect on regional hydrology cycle, land management, and hydro-power supply. This study focuses on understanding the effects of climate change on the hydrological processes in Northern Lake Erie Basin which contributes to the Lake Erie. Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a most widely used hydrologic and water quality model will be used for setting up historical and future climate scenarios. The SWAT model will be first calibrated and validated in the historical conditions. Future climate scenarios will be developed using projected downscaled weather data of daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature generated from the various climate models. A bias correction tool called Climate Model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) will be applied to bias correct the raw climate data. The bias-corrected gridded climate change data will be used to simulate future scenarios in two projected time-periods (2040-2053 and 2080-2093) each being fourteen years respectively. Hydrological budgets and streamflow’s at various gauge stations will be compared between historical and future climate scenarios.

1. Keyword
climate change

2. Keyword
Lake Erie

3. Keyword
hydrologic budget