Effects of climate change on lake ice freeze up: historical patterns and future predictions

Session: 52. - Climate Interactions with Large Lakes? Physical Systems

Bailey Hewitt, York University, [email protected]
Lianna Lopez, York University, [email protected]
John Magnuson, Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, [email protected]
Sapna Sharma, York University, [email protected]

Abstract

Lake ice freeze across the Northern Hemisphere has become later, with the most rapid rates of change seen over the last few decades. Our study examines i) the spatial and temporal patterns in climate-induced changes to lake ice freeze and ii) future projections of ice phenology under scenarios of climate change for 78 lakes across the Northern Hemisphere. We collated lake ice freeze dates from 1950-2013 from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, as well as updated records from collaborators. We obtained air temperature, precipitation, and cloud cover data from the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit and large-scale climate drivers from various open source databases. We found that lakes across the Northern Hemisphere froze 1.4 days/decade later over the 64-year period. Although there is a strong overall trend, there is also variation within the trends as they range from -2.1 to 3.7 days/decade. The variability in ice freeze trends may be explained by geography as well as the morphology of the lakes. Particularly, the most dramatic changes in lake ice phenology would be found in warmer, southern latitudes. These shifts in lake ice freeze suggest the prospect of less ice cover in lakes under future climate scenarios.

1. Keyword
climate change

2. Keyword
ice

3. Keyword
climatic data

4. Additional Keyword
Freeze Up

5. Additional Keyword
Northern Hemisphere