Analyzing stakeholder perceptions of uncertainty to guide Lake Erie watershed modeling

Session: 41b. - Great Lakes Harmful Algal Blooms Research from Watershed Influence to Ecosystem Effects

Lynn Vaccaro, University of Michigan Water Center, [email protected]
Robert Goodspeed, University of Michigan, [email protected]
Anikka Van Eyl, University of Michigan, [email protected]
Jennifer Read, Michigan Sea Grant College Program, Samuel T. Dana Bldg., [email protected]

Abstract

Finding solutions for Lake Erie’s recurring algal blooms has been particularly challenging for a number of reasons. One factor is that stakeholders have diverse views on the causes of the problem and are critical of current efforts to address the issue. Ecosystem models of Lake Erie have helped the policy community come to agreement and establish water quality targets, and watershed models are now being developed to guide strategies for reducing nutrient inputs to the lake. The ultimate impact of these policy-relevant models will depend, in part, on well research teams understand and respond to stakeholder concerns and perceptions of uncertainty. Recognizing this need, we formed a diverse 30-person advisory group to provide feedback on a modeling-intensive project, the Watershed Assessment of Detroit River Nutrient Loads to Lake Erie. Project advisory group members were interviewed prior to the group’s first meeting and their comments were characterized using an existing uncertainty framework and qualitative content analysis methods. In this presentation, we will examine the types of concerns and uncertainties identified by the advisory group, and illustrate how this information can guide the consultation and collaboration process, improve watershed modeling, and help explain the uncertainty related to modeling results.

1. Keyword
watersheds

2. Keyword
decision making

3. Keyword
modeling