The Impact of Climate Change on Surface and Groundwater Resources in Southern Ontario

Session: 43. - Climate Change Impacts on Ecohydrology of Urbanized Watersheds Draining into Large Lakes

Andre Erler, Aquanty Inc., [email protected]
Steven Frey, Aquanty Inc., [email protected]
Richard Peltier, University of Toronto, [email protected]
Edward Sudicky, Aquanty Inc., University of Waterloo, [email protected]

Abstract

The impact of climate change on surface water resources is reasonably well studied, using modeling approaches of varying sophistication. However, the impact on groundwater resources has only been considered by a few studies world-wide. Here we present an analysis of climate change impacts on groundwater (and surface water) resources in a well instrumented watershed in southern Ontario. We employ a state-of-the art modeling pipeline consisting of a high-resolution regional climate model (WRF) driven by CMIP5 global climate projections and a fully integrated hydrologic model (HGS).
The WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is run at up to 10km resolution and coupled to an on-line freshwater lake model (FLake), while HGS (HydroGeoSphere) simulates the terrestrial hydrosphere at sub-kilometer scale, from deep groundwater to surface water, including surface water-groundwater interactions.
The impact of climate change will be considered based on a range of climate scenarios, model configurations, and landuse-change scenarios. Furthermore, the implications of the results for the surrounding region and the Great Lakes Basin will be discussed.
Preliminary results suggest that the dominant uncertainty lies in the projected precipitation changes, and that climate change impacts on surface and groundwater are potentially large, while the impact of landuse-change appears to be small.

1. Keyword
climate change

2. Keyword
modeling

3. Keyword
watersheds

4. Additional Keyword
hydrology

5. Additional Keyword
groundwater