Using Modeling to Guide Eutrophication Risk Assessment and Adaptive Management in Lake Erie

Session: 23. - The IJC's Science Advisory Board Review of Current Priorities and Projects

Deborah Lee, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, [email protected]
Gavin Christie, Great Lakes Lab for Fisheries & Aquatic Sci, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, [email protected]
George Arhonditsis, University of Toronto Scarborough, [email protected]

Abstract

Under the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement protocol, the Governments of Canada and United States used nine available water quality models, operating on differing spatiotemporal scales, to predict changes in harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, and Cladophora under a wide range of phosphorus input scenarios. These models were instrumental in establishing phosphorus reduction targets to alleviate the severity of eutrophication phenomena in Lake Erie.  Although initial target development has been completed, tracking progress toward meeting such targets and identifying lake responses to changing conditions will require implementation of an adaptive management framework. The IJC’s Science Advisory Board is conducting an inventory of current and recent modeling activities for Lake Erie to evaluate their methodological consistency and technical adequacy to guide eutrophication risk assessment; to address how adaptive management can be integrated as part of the existing modeling work and identify the levers needed to achieve effective ecosystem management. The same project also aims to provide guidance on how natural variability and predictive uncertainty offer critical planning information that can be used to inform the public and communicate progress towards achieving targeted phosphorous reduction goals. This presentation reports on the rationale of the study, progress to date, and interim findings.

1. Keyword
ecosystem modeling

2. Keyword
nutrients

3. Keyword
Lake Erie

4. Additional Keyword
adaptive management

5. Additional Keyword
Science Advisory Board

6. Additional Keyword
Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement