Advances in Operational Seasonal to Inter-annual Great Lakes Water Level Forecasting

Session: 53. - Great Lakes Water Level Fluctuations and Water Management

Lauren Fry, US Army Corps of Engineers - Detroit District, [email protected]
Zoe Miller, US Army Corps of Engineers - Detroit District, [email protected]
Andrew Gronewold, NOAA, GLERL, [email protected]
Keith Kompoltowicz, US Army Corps of Engineers Detroit District, [email protected]

Abstract

Seasonal to inter-annual projections of Great Lakes water levels and outflows are considered in a variety of water management applications, ranging from regulation of outflows to decision making in the hydropower industry. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) provides the U.S. contribution to the bi-nationally coordinated 6-month forecast produced under the auspices of the International Joint Commission since the 1950s.The USACE contribution to the coordinated forecast has for decades relied on a suite of deterministic water supply models. In 2017, USACE began testing a new suite of probabilistic seasonal to inter-annual water level forecasts that were developed through a collaboration between USACE and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) for application to hydropower decision-making. This presentation will place this significant advancement in modeling capability in the context of USACE’s existing operational forecasting efforts, taking advantage of recent improvements in archiving and skill assessment protocol that have been implemented at USACE.

1. Keyword
hydrologic budget

2. Keyword
Water level