Climate vulnerability of a hydropower rich Great Lakes watershed

Session: 35. - Watershed Modeling across all Scales from Small to Large

Vinod Chilkoti, University of Windsor, [email protected]
Saranya Jeyalakshmi, [email protected]
Tirupati Bolisetti, University of Windsor, [email protected]
Ram Balachandar, University of Windsor, [email protected]

Abstract

Climate change is posing a great threat to the exploitable streamflow availability. The infrastructure projects having a strong dependency on natural streamflow are likely to get affected by the altered scenario. To this end, it is of foremost importance to evaluate the potential risk the changing climate poses for these projects. Magpie river, draining into Lake Superior, is exploited with three hydropower facilities in its downstream reaches. In the present research the impacts of climate change on the streamflow are evaluated through the hydrologic modeling of the basin in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). A multi-objective calibration strategy is adopted for a robust model evaluation. Through an ensemble of projected climate scenarios, the variations in water yield across the time-domain are computed. The modeling results indicate a substantial increase in the winter flows while a decrease is estimated during the spring and summer flows due to the advancement of spring snowmelt. The multi-objective hydrologic model evaluation and multi-model climate scenario approach assisted in uncertainty assessment in the modeling. These results hold significance for the hydropower operators and it becomes crucial for the projects to adapt to the altered inflow scenario in order to sustain a profit making venture.

1. Keyword
climate change

2. Keyword
modeling

4. Additional Keyword
multi-objective calibration