Guiding risk assessment and adaptive management implementation in Lake Ontario

Session: 54. - Food Web Ecology and Dynamics of Lake Ontario: Nearshore ? Pelagic Linkages

George Arhonditsis, University of Toronto Scarborough, [email protected]

Abstract

My talk will present two case studies from Lake Ontario, the Hamilton Harbour and Bay of Quinte, where models have been used to identify polluters, to direct the use of research dollars, and to determine management strategies that have considerable social and economic implications. Considerable modeling work has been done towards establishing realistic eutrophication goals and impartially evaluating the likelihood of delisting the two systems as Areas of Concerns (AOCs). Existing watershed, eutrophication, and food web models have shed light on different facets of the ecosystem functioning. I address several critical questions that have emerged from these models: To what extent do the models coalesce with respect to their assumptions and inference drawn? What are the major sources of uncertainty that will ultimately determine the attainment of the existing delisting goals? My aim is to highlight the major lessons learned about the watershed dynamics, the eutrophication phenomena, and the broader implications for food web integrity. I also place special emphasis on the knowledge gaps of our current understanding of the two systems. My thesis is that the uncertainty stemming from several "ecological unknowns" can offer critical planning information to determine the optimal management actions

1. Keyword
risk assessment

2. Keyword
modeling

3. Keyword
risk assessment