Climate Change Impact on Storm Frequency and Intensity and Its Consequences for Lake Erie Shorelines

Session: 51. - Coastal Resilience

Erdinc Sogut, Stony Brook University, [email protected]
Deniz Velioglu Sogut, Stony Brook University, [email protected]
Ali Farhadzadeh, Stony Brook University, [email protected]

Abstract

Lake Erie has the fourth largest surface area, shallowest water depth and smallest volume among the five Great Lakes in North America. In this study the potential effects of climate change on the trends of extreme coastal events in Lake Erie are studied and beach responses to such effects are evaluated.

Historically, the surface of Lake Erie was nearly fully ice-covered during winters; however, it is observed that over the past two decades, the ice-cover has been significantly reduced. To investigate whether warmer winters in the recent years could be correlated to changes in storm patterns in Lake Erie, historical water level records for the two time windows are analyzed using extreme value analysis methods. This can demonstrate the previous and recent trends of the storm frequency and intensity and their potential shifts that may be attributed to climate change effects. The implications of changes in the storm trends for the eastern Lake Erie shorelines, in terms of erosion or accretion, are then quantified using a two-dimensional nearshore morphodynamic model, XBeach. The model is used for the detailed analysis of morphological changes to selected beaches in eastern Lake Erie for a number of extreme coastal events.  

1. Keyword
coastal engineering

2. Keyword
climate change

3. Keyword
Lake Erie

4. Additional Keyword
erosion

5. Additional Keyword
Shoreline

6. Additional Keyword
Storm