Losing lake ice: Extreme no-freeze ice events in Northern Hemipshere lakes

Session: 49. - Big Lakes - Small World: IAGLR Teams with the European Large Lakes Symposium in 2018

Sapna Sharma, York University, [email protected]
John Magnuson, Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, [email protected]

Abstract

The prevalence of extreme climatic events is increasing.  Lake ice is a sensitive indicator of climate and the absence of lake ice can be considered an extreme climatic event.  Our objective was to understand the drivers of extreme no freeze events in lakes around the Northern Hemisphere.  We assembled a database of 615 lakes around the Northern Hemisphere with long-term records of lake ice phenology.  22 lakes have experienced no freeze events, with a higher frequency of no freeze events in recent decades.  Classification tree analysis revealed that lakes with mean depths greater than 18 metres and found at latitudes south of 45°N are at risk of no-freezing events.  Warmer air temperatures, in addition to strong El Nino Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation events, contribute to no-freeze years in lakes.  Rising air temperatures attributed to global climatic change further increases the vulnerability of no-freeze extreme years in lakes around the Northern Hemisphere over this century. Increased frequency of extreme no-freeze events on lakes has tremendous ecological and socio-economic implications including alterations in nutrient cycling, thermal dynamics, and loss of winter recreational activities.

1. Keyword
ice

2. Keyword
climate change