Development of a Hypoxia Forecast Model for Lake Erie: Retrospective Analysis of the First Season

Session: 45. - Hypoxia: Causes, Impacts, and Management

Mark Rowe, Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, [email protected]
Eric Anderson, NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), [email protected]
Gregory Lang, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, [email protected]
Steve Ruberg, NOAA - GLERL, [email protected]
Scott Moegling, Cleveland Water Department, [email protected]
Ed Verhamme, LimnoTech, [email protected]
Dmitry Beletsky, CIGLR, SEAS, University of Michigan, [email protected]
Hongyan Zhang, CIGLR, University of Michigan, [email protected]
Thomas Johengen, CILER, University of Michigan, [email protected]
Craig Stow, NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, [email protected]

Abstract

For the first time, in 2017, we ran a hypoxia forecast model that generated a daily nowcast and forecast of three-dimensional fields of dissolved oxygen (DO) in Lake Erie. We are in the second year of a five-year project with the goal of developing a hypoxia forecast model that can serve public water systems in Lake Erie, and may be suitable for operational use at NOAA. The DO model was developed using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model’s General Ecological Module, and the hydrodynamic component was similar to NOAA’s Lake Erie Operational Forecast System. Three noteworthy upwelling events occurred in July and August, bringing hypoxic water to coastal water intake locations, as observed through DO sensors (GLOS and LimnoTech), and sensor moorings deployed as part of our project. Cool, breezy weather at the end of August caused the hypoxic zone to retreat to deeper water, but warm, calm weather caused shoreward expansion of the hypoxic zone in September. These events were portrayed by the model. However, the model displayed limited skill in some characteristics, for example shallow-biased mixed layer depth. An assessment of model skill, suitability for the application, and future directions will be presented.

1. Keyword
hydrodynamic model

2. Keyword
oxygen

3. Keyword
Lake Erie